So, we're hearing a lot about the "Final Four", as it refers to our leadership contest. I don't think we can't be so sure that one of the "back markers" couldn't squeeze into the picture... Someone like a Dryden, for example, could have some influence on the final result.
Let's look at the potential movement first. Looking at the top two, you don't really see movement early on from these two camps - not for a ballot or two - simply because they are the current leaders. Until one of Kennedy or Dion have a surge, the Rae people will also probably stand pretty firm. The Kennedy folks seem to be the most likely to travel to Rae early, but there are a LOT of Western Kennedy supporters looking at Ignatieff on the second ballot.
The blogs really seem to demonstrate a lot of shots being traded back and forth between the Kennedy and Dion camps. It's really starting to look like a heated battle. The barbs are now starting to get nasty. I might just be making an "inside" observation, since I'm relying more on what I see in the blogs and what my friends in both camps tell me - the story may be different from the angle the general public observes. From the seething dislike building up between these two camps, it seems more and more likely that supporters of both will prefer to oppose each other as the convention gets later and later in the rounds.
I'm starting to think (like a lot of others I've spoken with) that regardless of the end results both Dion and Kennedy will have a considerable impact on the eventual outcome. All the verbal shots and accusations we're seeing between the camps right now are just symptoms of the "jockeying for position" both groups are currently engaged in. The "back markers", while potentially not winning the contest, have enough votes to be able to influence - at the very least - the battle for 3rd place, and eventually impacting the choice for leader.
One thing is for certain: this is going to be a great convention, and I really can't wait to be a part of it all, in the city which really should take credit for the birth of modern Canadian liberalism...
3 comments:
I agree with you on your prediction that Ignatief and Rae wont see much movement in early ballots. I can only see Rae gaining a slight increase from a few drop of Candidates. What I'm curious to see is if there will be a "Anyone but..." movement. There seems to be a bit of hostility towards both Rae and ignatief ( I think more so Rae) and I'm wondering if perhaps they have peaked to early.
The Kennedy supporters that I know all have Dion as their #2 guy. I also don't know any supporters of Dion who find Kennedy to be a particularly distasteful fellow. I'm not sure where you're getting the Kennedy v. Dion thing from.
Hi Robedger... My observations come from conversations with friends in both camps in Alberta and BC, as well as a friend who is helping organize for GK in Ontario (Metro TO). I also get it from reading these blogs - which seem rapt with the competitive talk and jockeying for position between the two camps...
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